Jake Tapper asked Donald Trump about his strategy for carrying out the deportation of undocumented immigrants during the first presidential debate. Trump ignored the question and went on one of his anti-immigration rants. Tapper said: “Thank you, President Trump,” and no one later insisted that Trump answer that question.
At the second debate, David Muir asked Trump: “How would you deport 11 million undocumented immigrants? I know you believe that number is much higher. Take us through this. What does this look like? Will authorities be going door to door in this country?” Trump snarled that he would use local police and then complained at length about the current administration. Again, he avoided the question.
Mass deportation is impossible to do
Before voting, I would like to know about the logistics of the intended deportations because I believe they are undoable. No one is talking about how the government will find those 11 million (or more, as Trump claims) undocumented immigrants and how it will deport them. Most of all, with the ballooning government deficit and demands to cut spending, no one asks how much it will cost.
I suspect that most of the Trump supporters and his opponents, similarly to me, hope that the whole deportation idea will dissipate or move to the undefined future if Trump wins. Staunch Trump supporters do not ask for details because they realize how nasty and inhuman it would be to chase 11 million of our neighbors, friends, coworkers, and often family members. The most reasonable among Trump supporters hope politicians and courts will stop him before he starts.
Trump’s opponents do not insist on details either because they know Kamala Harris is weak on immigration too; she proposes a variation of policies that have not stopped illegal immigration so far.
For Trump, illegal immigration became his leading election issue. He mixes facts with lies, but many Americans seem to buy it. A recent opinion poll shows that about 30% of Americans fully support the deportations, while an additional 24% somewhat support it. So, the headlines were that a majority of Americans support mass deportations. If Trump wins and the GOP gets both the House and the Senate, they might try to do the undoable: the deportations.
The end of ‘All men are created equal’
It would be hard to execute any massive deportations in the current legal framework. Entering into the U.S. without the approval of an immigration officer or overstaying a visa is not a federal crime; it is a misdemeanor. Lawyers would file many stop orders, practically derailing the process.
To start deportations, we would need a new law declaring undocumented immigrants as criminals and depriving them of some basic civil and human rights. The anti-immigration advocates tried that in 2006 but failed. With Trump winning, they can have a shot again.
Decreeing a class of people living among us as criminals due to their status will mean the end of “all men are created equal.” Regardless of the loftiness of intentions and the trickery of legal language, the similarity to the Nuremberg Laws depriving Jews of basic rights in Nazi Germany would come to mind. And similar consequences will follow. It would be the beginning of the totalitarian police state.
A nation of snitches
Living in the Chicago area, I have met many immigrant families where some undocumented immigrants have lived and prospered in the United States for more than three decades. Some of their children might have legal status, and some might not. Their grandchildren are most likely American-born citizens. In some families, one of the parents has legal status, and another does not. How will the government deal with these situations?
Most of the working-age undocumented immigrants are employed. They use many creative ways to mask their status, but there are people in their circles who know the truth. Without encouraging snitching, the government cannot succeed in the deportation project. So, American-born teenagers who are upset about the home rules imposed by their undocumented parents might report them to the authorities. Denouncing an undocumented individual to authorities will become a way of winning disputes within a family, friends, neighbors, or coworkers.
A landlord of the apartment building seeking government approval for a petty construction job could hear that some obstacles are up to an officer’s discretion. But, if they deliver a few undocumented, the decision will be favorable. Similarly, employers, in their interactions with government agencies, might receive better terms if, on the side, they give up a few undocumented.
There is no organized network of secret informants in the United States who report on others to government agencies. Stasi was the secret police in East Germany, known for perfecting the infiltration of people’s daily lives. It was disbanded 35 years ago. Its youngest officers are now in their early retirement and, if asked, may come and help the Trump administration turn Americans into snitches.
Will the government use ITIN data?
Staying in the United States undocumented is a misdemeanor; not paying taxes is a federal crime. Since 1996, the IRS has offered undocumented immigrants an Individual Tax Identification Number (ITIN), which, for tax purposes, works like a Social Security number but does not provide any benefits. This way, on the one hand, the federal government has denied undocumented aliens the legalization of their staying but, on the other hand, has eagerly collected taxes from them and, by doing so, protected them from making their stays criminal — hypocrisy in its crystalline form.
Since 1996, the IRS has issued 26 million ITINs. By the end of 2022, 5.8 million ITINs were active. It means the IRS has up-to-date information on about half of the estimated undocumented immigrants and likely valuable info about many others. The present regulations do not give immigration enforcement agencies access to that information except for individual cases related to tax crimes.
Will the Trump administration keep it that way, or will it try to use the tax data to catch and deport ITIN holders? The latter would be a breach of trust, but do Trump and other zealous anti-immigrant advocates in his crowd care?
The economic disaster
Undocumented immigrants are about 5% of all employed in America. But in several professions — some construction jobs, for example — it could be about one-quarter of all workers. Their removal will distort the markets and increase prices.
For example, a meat processing plant might stay profitable thanks to employing a few hundred low-paid undocumented laborers. Thanks to that, local farmers can profit from selling their pigs or cows, and the region prospers. With those illegal workers deported, the plant might scale down or even close. Farmers will raise fewer animals, and the entire region will suffer an economic decline.
Some might call it an unintended consequence, but that term is a euphemism for the ignorance of decisions blindfolded by ideology and devoid of the rational calculation of predictable outcomes. It is not unreasonable to anticipate that due to deportations, a few minor market disruptions would reverberate, resulting in significant price increases affecting many Americans.
The destruction of the fabric of American society
The poll concluded that a majority of Americans support deportations, but it was barely above 50%, so one can say that almost half of Americans are against deportations. After all, there is nothing morally wrong with foreigners coming here without a border inspection when it is the most rational way to become a legal resident, as I explained in my earlier article.
Trump claims that he would use the help of local police. When catching a speeding driver, some might offer to dismiss the ticket in exchange for the info about an undocumented immigrant they could send to Trump’s executors. They might ask for three deportables if the speeding was excessive. It could be different in places where police officers are from local immigrant families. Some might warn the undocumented that their colleagues are just about going to get them.
Many Americans might help the Trump administration to catch and deport the undocumented. However, about half of Americans will passively or actively make it harder for the government. It will soon become a core issue of the deportation program. Then, the Trump administration will not be against just the undocumented immigrants, who are about 3.5% (no one knows the actual number) of the total population, but against half of all Americans. What will Trump do to force compliance by Americans who oppose his deportation policies? Will Trump penalize Americans for not cooperating satisfactorily with his deportation policies?
Now, the divisions are merely in the form of using aggressive language in political statements. With the deportations, those splits will result in actions where Americans might seriously hurt each other. Trust in public institutions will diminish, the shady characters will prosper, and morale will suffer.
‘Then they came for me — and there was no one left to speak for me’
When questioned, Trump says that he wants to repeat the drastic and inhumane deportation of about one million Mexican workers during the Eisenhower administration under Operation Wetback. Critics claim it was a publicity stunt to satisfy the xenophobia in America. It only temporarily slowed illegal immigration.
The scary truth is that if Trump wins, he might mobilize enough support to get the deportations going. To make it more efficient than Operation Wetback, Trump will need more people employed in executing the deportations.
The old mantra, “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing,” comes to mind. But let us speculate that somehow, Trump would overcome the opponents and, within a few months, he would deport a few million undocumented. Scared, a few more million undocumented would leave voluntarily.
Illegal immigrants, now blamed for all American issues, would be gone; the American problems would stay. The economy would decline, and businesses would shrink or move abroad. The health care would not be any better or any cheaper. As always, the richest would be wealthier after the political turmoil, and the rest of the population would bear the burden. The political mood would turn against Trump.
Politicians from the Bernie Sanders camp might win the next election. They would use the security apparatus created to expel undocumented immigrants to fight with billionaires, a new enemy of Americans. The following administrations might use that apparatus of oppression to fight different enemies. Eventually, everyone, sooner or later, would become an enemy of America.
It would not take long for Americans to recall the famous speeches by Martin Niemöller, who listed instances of people being passive when seeing others harmed in Nazi Germany. They will say: “First they came for the illegal immigrants, and I did not speak out — because I was not an illegal immigrant. (…) Then they came for me — and there was no one left to speak for me.”
